Fleet Characteristics

In our annual reporting of the gearless coaster fleet – 3600, 5000, 6500 and 8500 dwt vessels – one of the things we do is build a picture of fleet development over the past twelve months. Going forwards, we will continue to update this, and the other information we present, throughout the year on our new portal.

To do this, we use AIS data to consider the average age, net growth or decline, geographical distribution, newbuild orders and demolitions of vessels in Northwest Europe and the Baltic Sea, the Western Mediterranean and the Eastern Mediterranean and the Black Sea.

This year, we observed some interesting developments. With a quick glance at the numbers alone, a picture of relative stability emerges. It’s true that the different vessel categories saw increases or decreases in their average ages and the number of vessels active but in most cases changes were slight.

However, this fails to take into account the finer details, which present a much more dynamic picture. Over the year, vessels were coming into and exiting the area or undergoing changes that saw them transition in or out of one category or another.

The 3600-dwt vessel category, for example, experienced only a slight increase in average age. Such an observation alone, though, does not factor in the numerous newbuild deliveries seen in the category.

Similarly, we saw marginal declines in the number of vessels trading in all areas of the geofence. It is only when we look closer though that we can make the interesting observation that it is younger tonnage that is operating in the northern and western parts of the geofence.

Both the 5000 and 6500 dwt saw net fleet growth over the period. In other areas, however, there were contrasts; the 5000-dwt fleet increased in average age, while the 6500-dwt category decreased, for example.

Also, while the younger 5000-dwt vessels, as with the 3600-dwt category, can be seen to be more active in the north and western areas, a different trend emerges when we consider the 6500 dwt vessels. Here, the newer tonnage is more evenly distributed across the areas – representative perhaps of the long-standing popularity of this category in the Black Sea. Indeed, while there was a decrease of vessels trading in this area, the total number remains high.

For both 5000 and 6500-dwt categories, there is a significant amount of newbuilding activity taking place – with the 6500-dwt category's order book representing the largest proportion of the active fleet compared to the other size categories. At the same time, virtually no demolitions are taking place. The largest number of demolitions occurred in the 3600-dwt category, a reflection of the average age of the fleet.

In any case, given the number of vessels operating in this category, the impact of this has been minimal. At the same time, virtually no demolitions are taking place. The largest number of demolitions occurred in the 3600-dwt category, a reflection of the average age of the fleet. In any case, given the number of vessels operating in this category, the impact of this has been minimal.

The new deliveries will take place gradually over the coming years, which should help to maintain stability. There is a chance, though, that should demand drop, we will see either an increase in demolitions or the cancellation of options at the yards.

For the time being, though, things are relatively stable and any decline in values would purely be corrections of historical highs.

A different picture emerges when we consider the largest of the vessels that we analyse, however. Historically, Chinese yards had the lead in building vessels in the 8500-dwt category. In recent years, however, Russia has increased its activity.

Due to the war in Ukraine, the majority of these younger vessels are currently unable to trade on the open market. Additionally, much of the current order book is focused on Russian yards. Given the current situation, it remains to be seen how many of these orders will be realised. All of this means that, for younger vessels especially, this category enjoys a degree of value protection not seen in the smaller sizes.